[Limit Down Analysis] SMRT 19 Jan 2026

SMRT Limit Down 19 Jan 2026
Potential Risks - Fundamental View
Customer Concentration: The company heavily relies on a single customer, TNB, which accounted for approximately 72% of its FY24 revenue.


Higher Taxes: The expiry of its "pioneer tax status" in November 2025 will cause its tax rate to jump from less than 1% to 24%.


Earnings Decline: Due to the higher tax rate, core net profits are expected to drop between 4% and 11% annually in FY26–27.


Project Delays: Rollouts in Indonesia have faced delays due to elections and leadership changes at state-owned enterprises.

Payment Delays: The company experienced a spike in "receivable days" (payment wait times) due to a major customer upgrading its internal systems.

Think Twice

How is SMRT managing to maintain a 40% margin when TNB is their only major client? Usually, having a single customer means lower margins because you have no leverage. This reminds me of the recent PTRANS crash—it makes me wonder if SMRT is also at risk of a sudden, sharp sell-off despite its high-profit numbers.


Centrm Monitoring Platform
Are those monitoring platform worth for TNB to throw in 50 million a year? 


 Think Twice before you trying to bottom fish or speculate.

Final Update (main root cause of limit down):
Management guided that site deployments are expected to contract materially from FY27 onwards, falling to <100 sites, down from a historical run-rate of c.3k sites.
 

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